Cymru Older Peoples Alliance – COPA – have raised concerns about research that shows a large deficit in the supply of specialist care home beds (including those for dementia) for older people in Wales both now and increasingly over the next decade.
A research report by the reputable sector analysists, Christie &Co outlines significant concerns about the supply of care home beds for older people in Wales – ‘Wales Healthcare Market Insight 2024’ Wales Healthcare Market Insight 2024 | Christie & Co The report highlights a worrying undersupply of dementia beds in Wales currently with only 26% of Councils having sufficient supply. It also shows that Wales is facing a deficit of 10,000 care home beds by 2034, with the problem especially likely to impact outside of the main cities and in rural areas. The main points made by the Report are:
- The majority of beds supplied in Wales are not at market standard.
- Care homes throughout Wales are closing at a rate that far exceeds new registrations/expansions of existing homes.
- Demand in England, Scotland and Wales is rising – the difference is that England and Scotland are replacing closing homes with new ones.
- Occupancy rates in Wales remain higher than those of England and Scotland.
- There is a distinct lack of Effective Market Capacity (EMC) (market standard) beds in Wales, and this deficit is increasing year on year with no signs of slowing.
Following discussion at A COPA Board meeting, we wrote [ ] to the responsible Welsh Government Minister, setting out our concerns about the implications of this research for older people in Wales. The response from Dawn Bowden MS, Social Care Minister ( ), provides some reassurances about this issue at the general and strategic levels. It explains that the National Office for Care and Support will provide a stronger national focus on the social care sector and enable national oversight of the system. Additionally, the Health and Social Care National Commissioning Board has supported the strengthening of commissioning practice across Wales. The Minister wrote to the Regional Partnership Boards, with a copy to all Local Authorities and Health Boards, to remind them of the importance of the need to ensure market and population needs data is kept up to date and is directly informing commissioning.
However, despite the constructive response from the Welsh Government, there are outstanding questions:-, i. acknowledgement of the deficits in care home places described by the Report ii. explanation of what specific action is being taken e.g., follow up of the research, reporting and monitoring iii. establishing this critical issue as a priority in the Implementation Plan for the new National Office for Care and Support.
Following discussion at a later COPA Board meeting it was agreed that COPA should consider follow-up and consult with interested partners about the Minister’s response. Following consultation, the conclusion reached was that we should work with the Commissioner for Older Peoples’s office and Age Cymru to secure greater clarity about how the projected deficits in care home places will be monitored and addressed as part of the new focus on Commissioning by the Welsh Government.
The mitigating actions and new models of care being developed through the Welsh Government should be helpful in dealing with demand pressures. However, our concern still needs to be addressed, i.e. the evidence about the current and future increase in the numbers of people with dementia means that access and choice for older people needing residential long-term care could be at risk. COPA will continue to work with partners to better understand how the information available is being used to determine the national picture and address the risks outlined in the Research.
Cymru Older Peoples Alliance December 2024